Economic and Political Influences

May 11, 2023

On Thursday, May 11, XPONENTIAL 2023 featured Keynote speaker Andy Busch, Economic Futurist and the first Chief Market Intelligence Officer for the US Government. 

In his presentation, Busch discussed the current state of the economy, politics, and markets and provided context by delving into the past and looking ahead to the future. He emphasized the importance of understanding where we’ve been to figure out where we are and where we’re going.

One of the critical topics Busch touched on was the impact of COVID-19 on the economy, supply chains, and both fiscal and monetary policy. He noted that the rapidity at which the economic infrastructure was shut down sent shockwaves through the global economy and forced a shift in the alignment of manufacturing and services that required immediate regulatory action and realignment of supply chains. The fiscal and monetary stimulus that was injected into the US economy was massive and helped to jumpstart economic growth, but introduced several issues, including near-immediate inflation and funding requirements that are likely to be a barrier to growth in forward periods.

Digging deeper into the supply chain issue, Busch discussed that the realignment had a more significant impact on the inflation of goods relative to services. With people unable to spend money on services, they began to spend more on goods, leading to a bump in their consumption. This also put a strain on the global supply chain, which was already under pressure due to the trade war between the US and China, COVID-related shutdowns, and other factors. Output needed to increase, but manufacturing capacity was insufficient to support demand, leading to temporary goods shortages.

Busch also talked about the rising risk of a recession and the impact of government spending policies. He noted that approved money will start flowing in the near future and that there are growth opportunities in various industries that he believes have the potential to add near-term growth.