Tech, Regulatory, Market, and Media Trends to Watch In 2023: Takeaways From AUVSI’s Future Forecast Webinar

The advancement of uncrewed technology relies heavily on a variety of factors coming together and shaping the future of the industry. The industry is in exciting stages of both innovation and operations and AUVSI is eagerly leaning into both in the new year. 

AUVSI recently hosted our annual Future Forecast webinar on outlooks, predictions, and potential challenges the industry faces in 2023. From the advancing technology, legal and regulatory outlooks, financial growth and opportunities, and the important role of public perception, experts who shared their insights on what the future may hold included: 

 

What’s New in Tech: Collaborative Autonomy is Driving Mission-Level Success 

Rich Wronski, Vice President - Sensing, Perception, and Applied Robotics Division at Charles River Analytics, recapped trends in 2022’s significant tech advancements and what he expects for 2023.  

He explained that increasingly, groups of vehicles are being used to achieve tasks. This evolution is being driven by the increasing availability of cost-effective vehicles, increasing computational power onboard vehicles, and increasing affordability and range of sensors. 

The adoption of open architecture promotes flexibility and multiple use-cases for uncrewed platforms. This is seen in the expansion of system capabilities via HW/SW applications and communications across heterogenous platforms. However, the autonomy of these vehicles is limited by technical constraints, confidence in autonomous vehicles, and vehicle operating regulations (such as FAA Part 107). 

He also emphasized that, “Assured autonomy is the way forward.... the harsh reality is that, regardless of domain, autonomous solutions that can’t be trusted by their human operators will simply never get deployed.” The good news he sees trust trending in the right direction, in part due to: 

  • The implementation of explainable AI vs “black box” AI 

  • The use of natural and humanistic interfaces, like Natural Language Processing 

  • Increasing operational manageability, enabling operator coordination at the mission level 

 

What’s Next for Regulations: Looking Ahead to Policy Action 

Rob Chamberlin, a 20-year career expert on federal policy and politics, shared his perspective that he has seen industry leadership looking for, “a framework that will allow new technologies to grow and flourish,” but instead they have found that, “lawmakers and regulators have failed, because as often is the case with policy and regulations, they don’t keep up with innovating and iterating technology.” 

Chamberlin says that in 2023, a host of opportunities can come to uncrewed systems industry due to “a strong appetite to get things done,” as caused by a confluence of factors: 

  1. Federal agencies are facing tremendous pressure from Congress, as key lawmakers have indicated dissatisfaction with the current pace of regulations as the U.S. loses ground to international bodies that are quick to move on new technologies 
  2. Legislative opportunities in the 2023 FAA Reauthorization, appropriations, and other expected bills
  3. The UAS Beyond Visual Line of Sight Aviation Rulemaking Committee’s report being translated into a notice of proposed rulemaking in 2023
  4. The entrance of new technologies into the national airspace system
  5. New aircraft type certifications, as more eVTOL aircraft debut
  6. Exemptions for autonomous ground technologies by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration  

“All of your companies, you want to get revenue in the door to continue to innovate and iterate, and that is a sentiment we have heard numerous times as we talk to legislators,” he added. “I think this is a positive environment in the near future for uncrewed systems... I think there are plenty of opportunities.” 

AUVSI has bolstered our Advocacy initiatives in recent years, and in 2023 we are continuing to diligently work toward policies and regulations that will enable the integration of uncrewed systems. Read our latest recap on advocacy successes in the FY 2023 omnibus government funding bill here. 

 

The Big Picture for Markets: Macro Trends Meet Government Intervention 

Orin Hoffman - Partner and Head of Government Partnerships at The Engine and formerly a senior government civilian at the Defense Innovation Unit – stated that 2022 was a banner year for investment, and he expects to see similar levels of investment in 2023. He’s currently monitoring two trends in the market that, “will make the next year fundamentally unique from other years.” 

First, macro-economic trends show investors’ concern about an economic downturn. This means that: 

  • Later-stage investors will move earlier in the capital stack 

  • Investors will focus on protecting their current portfolio 

  • The industry will need to overcome a series of high-profile SPAC failures 

However, he also sees “some significant tailwinds” in these meta trends can make this a good year for companies in what he calls “tough tech”: 

  • Investors with significant funding will make long-term investments 

  • Labor shortages impacting supply chains support investments in the automation of the logistics industry – from warehouse and yar robotics to last-mile delivery 

  • The cost of components and manufacturing is decreasing, opening the door to more robotics-as-a-service models being accepted by investors 

  • Public-private partnerships and cost-sharing can serve to de-risk investing in some emerging areas 

Second, investors are closely watching government interventions. Lawmakers are clearly concerned about U.S. domestic competitiveness in robotics and have indicated their intent to support industries in and adjacent to uncrewed systems. Hoffman predicts the recently-passed CHIPS Act and Inflation Reduction Act will lead to increased investments in components and edge devices that “lift the tide for all uncrewed systems." 

 

Bringing it All Together: The Impact on Public Perception 

Casie Ocaña, VP of Marketing at Airspace Link shared how the industry must align public perception, technology, and regulations in order to integrate uncrewed systems into society.  

Studies show that people who have been exposed to drones are more trusting and comfortable with the technology. Airspace Link is working to demystify drones and educate the public through high-engagement technology showcases and the publication of data that quantifies the impact of drones. Their UAS Integration Framework focuses on reducing complexity and aligning stakeholders, which will in turn lead to improved perception of uncrewed technologies. 

“If we’re doing our job right, people are going to get really excited,” she said. 

Watch the full webinar on Aville – an AUVSI community. 

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