Breakout Session 8


Personal Vehicle Automation Commercialization
Room: Grand Peninsula E

 

How will Automated Vehicles make money?

 

This session will address the market commercialization of automation SAE levels 3,4 and 5 on primarily passenger cars sold by the automotive manufacturers to consumers. Compared to commercial and transit vehicles, the passenger car market is driven by strong consumer preferences and the resulting market forces. The commercial viability of passenger car automation, and its speed of emergence, will be driven by the value derived by the consumer and constrained by technical feasibility and other factors. This value may be in convenience, efficiency, safety or other factors important to consumers when they travel and in the products they choose to own. In addition, market business models may have strong impact on commercialization, such as the insurance industry’s positive or negative disruption from automation, and the role of information, services and Infotainment companies who now have a new valuable channel to the consumer.

 

Key questions surround personal vehicle commercialization and its emergence, both with motivators and inhibitors. What is the meaning of the 3 highest SAE levels of automation for consumers operating their vehicles? What will be the dependence on physical road infrastructure? How does this dependence damper or inspire commercialization? Is there resolve to provide “sufficient paint” road markings that allow a road to be useable by the various SAE levels? Will states compete to have more roads available for such mobility enhancement? Will vehicles be certified to operate in automated mode only on certain roads (SAE Level 4) and, if so, how is this implemented? How will vehicles and their systems deal with drivers who do not respond appropriately in SAE Level 3? How will vehicles be affordable with all of the technology required to provide fault-tolerant automation? What will be necessary in certification, maintenance and testing to assure safe operation of automated cars? Does passenger car automation lead to significant changes in car ownership through car sharing? What would be the possible impacts of substantial improvements in overall safety but occasional system-caused accidents? What unexpected market forces might seriously accelerate or delay the emergence of automated vehicles? What would happen if it's not technically feasible to provide a significant improvement in safety by use of automation?

 

The session will have a handful of speakers from various stakeholder industries to kick off our discussion. Then, session moderators will lead us through a systematic discussion of personal vehicle commercialization on the Tuesday and Wednesday morning sessions with focused topic sub-breakout parallel sessions. Note-takers will record our discussions for compilation into a summary for the Thursday morning report-out.

 

The desired outcome from this session will be an analysis of the various market forces that may impact the emergence of automated personal vehicles, including some that might not be intuitive in today’s automotive industry.

 

Tuesday Agenda

 

Session 1 – Moderator, Robert Seidl

13:45 – 14:00       Session Overview and Introductions

14:00 – 14:15       Kevin See, Lux Research

14:15 – 14:30       Jeff Drazan, CEO Bertran Ventures

14:30 – 14:45       Michael Scrudato, Munich Reinsurance America

14:45 – 15:00       Kyle Vogt, Cruise Automation

15:00 – 15:15       Chris Borroni-Bird, Qualcomm

 

15:15 – 15:45       Break

 

Session 2 – Moderator, John Suh           

15:45 – 17:00       Panel of Speakers, Q&A, Discussion

17:00 – 17:30       Identification of Market Forces sub-breakouts, e.g.:

   OEM Evolutionary Initiatives (Leader TBD)

   Insurance (Leader TBD)

   Infotainment, Telcos and Advertising (Leader TBD)

   Fleets – Rental Cars, Taxis, and Shared Mobility (Leader TBD)

   Corporate, Environmental, Legal (Leader: Paul Godsmark)

   Other? Revolutionary approach? VC’s?        

 

Wednesday Agenda

 

Session 3 – Moderator, Alain Kornhauser

13:45 – 14:00       John Capp, GM Director of Automotive Safety Office

14:00 – 14:15       Alex Mitchell, World Economic Forum

14:15 – 14:30       Panel of Speakers, Q&A, Discussion

14:30 – 15:45       Split into sub-breakouts and develop scenarios and descriptions of the emergence of SAE levels 3,4 and 5 given specified market forces

 

15:45 – 16:15       Break

 

Session 4 – Moderator, Bob Denaro

16:15 – 17:00       Report-outs from sub-breakouts and consolidation of findings

17:00 – 17:30       Preparation of Plenary Report-Out (All organizers)

 

Other Supporting Information

http://is.gd/trbpvac  PVAC Breakout Session Google Docs site for info

 

Identification of Organizers, Moderators and Reporters

 

Bob Denaro, ITS Consultant bobdenaro@aol.com

Alain Kornhauser, Professor and Faculty Chair, Princeton University Autonomous Vehicle Engineering, alaink@princeton.edu

Robert Seidl, Managing Director Transportation Technology Ventures, robert@transportationtechnologyventures.com

John Suh, Hyundai Ventures, John.Suh@hatci.com

Reporters from Princeton University


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